The Bell Tolls for Housing
JUNE 5, 2012 | 1:40 PM EDT
CoreLogic’s April housing stats are consistent with my own view.
“We see the consistent month-over-month increases in home price indices as one sign that the housing market is stabilizing … home prices are responding to a restricted supply that will likely exist for some time to come — an optimistic sign for the future of our industry … home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased on a year-over-year basis by 1.1 percent in April 2012 compared to April 2011. This was the second consecutive year-over-year increase this year, and the first time two consecutive increases have occurred since June 2010. On a month-over-month basis, home prices, including distressed sales, increased by 2.2 percent in April 2012. This marks the second consecutive month-over-month increase this year … Excluding distressed sales, prices increased 2.6 percent in April 2012 compared to March 2012, the third month-over-month increase in a row. The CoreLogic HPI also shows that year-over-year prices, excluding distressed sales, rose by 1.9 percent in April 2012 compared to April 2011.”
— Anand Nallathambi, president, CoreLogic
I am of the firm belief that the U.S. housing market is embarking upon a durable multi-year recovery that is capable of being in place for most of this decade.
The recovery in the residential real estate market should be an important factor in a self sustaining domestic economic recovery.
Corelogic’s April housing statistics are consistent with my view.
Here are some of the month’s hightlights:
Including distressed sales, the five states with the highest appreciation were: Arizona (+8.8 percent), District of Columbia (6.4 percent), Florida (+5.5 percent), Montana (+5.4 percent), and Utah (+5.4 percent).
Including distressed sales, the five states with the greatest depreciation were: Delaware (-11.9 percent), Illinois (-6.8 percent), Alabama (-6.6 percent), Rhode Island(-6.2 percent), and Georgia (-5.6 percent).
Excluding distressed sales, the five states with the highest appreciation were: Utah (+5.3 percent), Idaho (+5.1 percent), Mississippi (+4.7 percent), Louisiana (+4.6 percent) and Arizona (+4.6 percent).
Excluding distressed sales, the five states with the greatest depreciation were: Delaware (-10.1 percent), Rhode Island (-6.2 percent), Alabama (-4.4 percent), Vermont (-2.8 percent) and Connecticut (-2.3 percent).
Including distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the national HPI (from April 2006 to April 2012) was -31.7 percent. Excluding distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the HPI for the same period was -23.3 percent.
The five states with the largest peak-to-current declines including distressed transactions are Nevada (-58.9 percent), Florida (-46.5 percent), Arizona (-46.5 percent), Michigan (-43.6 percent) and California (-41.0 percent).
Of the top 100 Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) measured by population, 44 are showing year-over-year declines in April, 10 fewer than in March.